[Nov 27-Dec 2'23] COP28 Part 1

78% will do whatever it takes to solve climate crisis, plans to hook poor countries on fossil fuels, leaked documents reveals UAE to use COP to advanced their oil and gas, lobbyists everywhere.

Dec 04, 2023

Welcome to this week’s edition of The Weekly Climate 🎉

References: [1], [2] and [3].

The format for this newsletter will be different, since we have the COP28 theatre going on. First of all, this newsletter is the same for paid and free members. I will do a Part 2 and Part 3 in this style too (unless something radical changes). Secondly, the focus will be mainly on COP28 and there will be a section at the end with other newsworthy items. Thirdly, if you’re just looking to get a brief update, then check out the “3 most important articles” section at the top right below the next section.

How to cover a fossil fuel soiled COP28?

I was thinking a lot about what to do about COP28 since it seems so completely and utterly doomed to put us in a maybe even worse spot than before the event. I was seriously considering to not send any news at all as a kind of boycot of COP28. This was in large part triggered by a former colleague* who is now working for one of the big (non-fossil-fuel-industry) polluters in the world who shared news about an “event” which the person was clearly proud of and saw as a major breakthrough for this polluter in terms of the clean energy transition, but which for just about everybody else is just a clear example of straight clear greenwashing. Ok on the sunny side best case maybe with unicorns on it then, perhaps maybe it’s a step in the right direction but in most other cases it may even add to the company’s carbon footprint. I really respect this person for a lot of things they have done in their life and I know for a fact that the person is really smart, but the fact that they played into the greenwashing game so clearly and so obviously got me thinking that maybe what COP28 is mostly good for is for polluters like this company to share greenwashing news and get media airtime for it? This at least was me thinking from the pit of despair. On the other hand it also made me think whether everyone who really spouts this kind of stuff always knows that this is what they’re doing? I don’t know, TBH. With this person, I really want to believe that the person just doesn’t know.**

But fortunately, this article by Heated’s Emily Atkin got me thinking otherwise about boycotting COP28. Even though COP28 as she writes, will likely suck it’s worth paying attention to it anyway as it is after all an opportunity to do (or not to do) something more about climate change and at the very least provide funding for climate adaptation efforts in vulnerable countries.

I hope you enjoy this COP28 themed version of the newsletter. The usual sections won’t be here, instead it will mostly be a long list of relevant articles about COP28 with a topic tag as always. At the end I will have an “OTHER NEWS” section which will then be news not related to COP28.

So please for the love of future generations, let my hesitation above be put to shame by this COP28 🥺❤️🌍.

Ok, with that out of the way here’s this weeks COP28 focussed newsletter.

The 3 4 most important articles

[#peoplewantchange] — A survey shows that 78% of people around the world support doing "whatever it takes" to limit the effects of climate change. The survey also found that "generational messaging" was the most effective in motivating action, and that keeping the message simple and jargon-free increased support for immediate climate action. While support for government action on climate change is high, specific policies like phasing out fossil fuels and ending subsidies for polluters received less enthusiasm. The United States had the lowest support for climate policies, while Chile, Kenya, Argentina, Colombia, and Indonesia had strong support.

[#hookpoorcountries] — Saudi Arabia is implementing a global investment plan to create demand for its oil and gas in developing countries, according to an undercover investigation. The plan, known as the oil demand sustainability programme (ODSP), aims to increase the use of fossil fuel-powered vehicles and promote power ships in developing countries. The ODSP is overseen by Saudi Arabia's crown prince and involves major organizations such as Saudi Aramco and the Public Investment Fund. Critics argue that the plan is designed to get countries "hooked on its harmful products" and goes against efforts to transition to clean energy.

[#advancingUAEoilgas] — Leaked documents suggest that Sultan al-Jaber, the president of the UNFCCC COP28 Climate Conference, has used his position to advance the interests of UAE's oil company, Adnoc, and renewable energy company, Masdar. The documents reveal that al-Jaber has been lobbying on behalf of these companies during bilateral meetings with foreign officials, even as U.N. climate negotiators discuss phasing out fossil fuels. The allegations raise concerns about the impartiality of the COP presidency and the influence of commercial interests on the summit.

[#BigAgInfluence] — As COP28 focuses on food transformation, powerful food and farming companies are well positioned to protect their interests and influence debates. Agri-giants will be attending the climate summit, using various routes to influence discussions and keep binding targets off the table. These routes include joining country delegations, participating as observers, setting up pavilions, and promoting initiatives. The interactive Routes to Influence map by DeSmog highlights the major agri-giants attending COP28 and their involvement in the climate crisis.

Setting the stage

We can start by kicking things off with a cartoon

[#recordheat] — World leaders at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai urged urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to clean energy. The conference comes amid record heat and destructive climate events. Despite the challenges, leaders emphasized the need to phase out fossil fuels and address the existential threat of climate change. However, the conference is also marked by the absence of key leaders and the complex dynamics between developed and developing nations.

[#storms] — The 2023 hurricane season in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific saw an above-average number of storms, with a total of 37 storms and 13 rapidly intensifying storms. The warm ocean temperatures and the El Niño weather pattern played a role in the increased storm activity. The rapid intensification of storms near land highlighted the need for more reliable forecast models. Advanced warning systems helped in predicting some of the rapid strengthening, but some storms still caught meteorologists by surprise. The season also saw storms intensify faster than usual, causing significant damage and losses. Overall, the season underscored the impact of climate change on hurricane activity.

[#disease] — Climate change is driving new cases of malaria, complicating efforts to fight the disease. Last year, there were 249 million cases of malaria globally, with significant increases in Pakistan, Nigeria, Uganda, Ethiopia, and Papua-New Guinea. Flooding in Pakistan led to a fivefold increase in malaria transmission, while climate change contributed to the spread of malaria in Ethiopia and Uganda. The report also highlights the impact of weather emergencies, supply chain disruptions, and growing resistance to drugs and insecticides. Despite some progress, malaria remains a top killer of children worldwide.

[#airpollution] — Air pollution from fossil fuel use is responsible for 5 million deaths worldwide each year, a higher toll than previously estimated, according to a new study. The study suggests that a global phase-out of fossil fuels would have even greater health benefits than previously thought, supporting the use of clean, renewable energy sources to combat air pollution and climate change.

Expectations for COP28

[#highnote] — Let’s kick things off on a high note. This is probably the most positive article you’re going to read about the expectations for COP28 and it’s from a guy who I otherwise known to be quite doomy. The article discusses the current state of UN climate conferences, particularly COP, and argues that despite the failures of these conferences, there is an opportunity for progress. The author suggests that real change will only happen when citizens demand it and governments are forced to take climate action seriously. The article emphasizes the need for democratic action and international agreements that incentivize businesses to be green.

[#billmckibben] — This post by Bill McKibben discusses the revelations of leaked documents showing the UAE and Saudi Arabia using their official positions to leverage new oil and gas deals, undermining the efforts to combat climate change. It highlights the immoral actions of these countries and their alliance with car manufacturers to continue the demand for fossil fuels. The post emphasizes the need for movements to break the power of Big Oil and calls for a clear commitment to phase out fossil fuels. Various climate and energy news are also mentioned, including the fight against fossil fuel expansion, shutting down the Dakota Access Pipeline, and the plummeting prices of batteries.

[#sixnumbers] — The upcoming COP28 climate change summit faces significant challenges as carbon emissions continue to rise and the planet approaches tipping points. Key agreements, including a deal to phase down fossil fuels, are crucial. Six numbers highlight the challenges: only 1% of global investment in renewable energy came from fossil fuel companies, US carbon emissions are expected to fall by 3% this year but need to reduce by 6% annually to meet Paris Agreement goals, 16% of global carbon emissions came from the world's richest 1%, 135 million metric tons of methane were released in 2022, costing the US economy $150 billion annually, and September 2023 was 1.8°C hotter than pre-industrial levels. These numbers emphasize the urgency for action at COP28.

[#phaseout] — The COP28 climate summit must prioritize phasing out fossil fuels and accelerating the transition to renewable energy. Denmark's example of transitioning to wind energy and canceling future oil and gas exploration permits serves as a model. Governments must also ensure financial support for emissions reduction and climate resilience, and hold polluters accountable. A world free of fossil fuels is possible, and it's time for governments to take action and address the climate emergency.

[#fixcops] — The article discusses the effectiveness and future of the United Nations climate summits (COPs). While some believe that the annual gatherings are still important and useful for international climate action, others argue that they no longer meet the current needs and that a more focused and year-round approach is necessary. The article also mentions the challenges faced in the negotiations, such as compensating developing countries for climate-related losses and the continuous increase in global emissions and temperatures.

[#peterkalmus] — The very outspoken climate scientists Peter Kalmus writes that COP28 is a sick joke in this article and criticizes the United Nations climate summit, stating that it has been overrun by fossil fuel executives and has become a sick joke. He argues that the primary cause of global heating is fossil fuels and that the only solution is to end the fossil fuel industry. The author expresses anger and fear towards the fossil fuel executives and lobbyists who continue to spread disinformation and block climate action. They call for a global summit process that is not corrupted by the fossil fuel industry and emphasize the importance of a habitable planet for humanity's hopes and dreams.

[#IEA] — Oil and gas firms are urged to convert to renewable energy or face economic decline, according to the executive director of the International Energy Agency. The shift is necessary to tackle climate change, and companies should embrace clean energy and refocus their aims. The current level of investment in renewables by oil and gas companies is deemed insufficient, and carbon capture and storage technology is seen as unrealistic. The call for action comes as a new alliance of energy companies is formed at the UN Cop28 climate summit.

[#disinformation] — As world leaders gather at COP28 to address global warming, one of the biggest challenges they face is disinformation. Influential nations like Russia and China, along with fossil fuel companies and online provocateurs, spread false claims about climate change, eroding public pressure and political will. The campaign against meaningful action is fueled by an ecosystem of countries, corporations, and individuals with disparate agendas but a shared desire to discredit the climate change threat. Disinformation has led to conspiracy theories, social divisions, and even violence against those associated with climate change work. Experts warn that disinformation and misleading characterizations of the summit's goals are expected to spike during COP28.

Enemies: Fossil fuels and BigAg at COP28

[#fossilfuellobbyists] — Fossil fuel lobbyists are attending COP28, the world's most important climate conference, with hundreds of representatives from companies like ExxonMobil, Shell, and BP. Despite new transparency rules, it is difficult to determine the exact number of fossil fuel lobbyists present. This conflict highlights the challenge of finding climate solutions while the same people profiting from fossil fuels are involved. In other news, vulnerable nations secure pledges for loss and damage funding, Kamala Harris announces her attendance, a Marshall Islands representative resigns over secret fossil fuel dealmaking, Narendra Modi rebukes developed countries, and Britain's PM defends scaling back the UK's climate plan.

[#loopholelanguage] — At COP28, the lack of a globally agreed upon definition of "abatement" technologies like CCS is being exploited by fossil fuel leaders to distract from the need to phase out unabated fossil fuels. The use of strategic language and misleading messaging, such as the term "unabated" fossil fuels, is just the beginning. The fossil fuel industry aims to legitimize the reliance on abatement technologies as an alternative to a complete phase-out of fossil fuels. Additionally, the focus on "operational" emissions allows companies to divert responsibility and continue increasing oil and gas production. These tactics, along with the promotion of cleaner fossil fuels and the idea of the industry's leading role in the transition, serve as a get-out-of-jail-free card and hinder meaningful climate action.

Pledges & topics discussed

[#nuclear] — At COP28, the United States and 21 other countries pledged to triple nuclear energy capacity by 2050, citing its importance in reducing carbon emissions. However, funding and construction costs pose significant challenges. Proponents argue that nuclear power is a clean and reliable complement to renewable energy, while critics highlight its costliness and potential risks. The pledge aims to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and meet climate goals outlined in the Paris Agreement.

[#AI] — Artificial intelligence (A.I.) is being discussed at the COP28 climate summit as a potential tool to combat climate change, but concerns about its energy consumption and potential harm to humans and the planet have been raised. A.I. has the ability to process vast amounts of information and could contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but its energy requirements could exacerbate climate change. Researchers and industry leaders are hopeful that the benefits of A.I. will outweigh its energy consumption, but the issue remains uncertain.

Results

[#lossdamagefund] — On day one of Cop28, a loss and damage fund was officially established, with the World Bank serving as the interim host. The UAE contributed $100 million to the fund. The focus now shifts to the phase-out of fossil fuels. Cop28 president Al Jaber emphasized the need to include the role of fossil fuels in the negotiations, despite the call for limiting global warming to 1.5C. He also highlighted the engagement with oil and gas companies, with many committing to near-zero methane emissions by 2030 and adopting net-zero targets by 2050. However, concerns were raised about the actual reduction in fossil fuel production. Cop27 president Shoukry issued a reality check, expressing concerns about decreasing climate finance and the expansion of fossil fuel production by some countries.

Other non-COP28 news

[#spotlightchina] — Here’s CarbonBrief’s profile on the biggest polluter in the world: China. China's transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is curbing petrol demand growth and causing China's petrol demand to peak in 2023. The country has implemented policies to promote the "new energy vehicle" (NEV) industry, with targets for NEVs to make up the majority of car sales by 2035. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of new energy vehicles, accounting for nearly 60% of global electric car sales. The country also aims to accelerate railway electrification and promote high-speed railways as a low-carbon alternative. China is highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, experiencing rising temperatures, sea level rise, and extreme weather events. The country has implemented adaptation measures and released a national adaptation strategy to address climate impacts.

[#demandflexibility] — The demand flexibility service (DFS) in Great Britain has been successful in reducing costs and CO2 emissions. The service allows providers to notify customers about periods of high demand on the grid and incentivizes them to reduce their electricity consumption during those times. During the trial period, 1.6 million households and businesses participated, providing approximately 350MW of flexibility and helping to avoid blackouts. DFS achieved a total reduction of 3,300MWh of electricity and avoided 681tCO2 emissions. The service also offered financial benefits to participants and demonstrated potential for future use in managing periods of high generation on the system.

[#lithiumionbatterypricedrop] — According to BloombergNEF, the price of lithium-ion battery packs hit a record low of $139/kWh in 2023, dropping 14% from 2022. This decrease in cost was attributed to increased production capacity, falling prices for raw materials, and weaker demand. The report also predicts further declines in battery pack prices in the coming years, reaching $113/kWh in 2025 and $80/kWh in 2030.

[#climatejusticeamazon] — The voluntary carbon credit market in the Amazon is causing harm to forest-dwelling communities. Indigenous and traditional communities are being co-opted, contracts are not translated into local languages, and the terms are often unclear. The lack of understanding about carbon credits among local people and the history of exploitation and resource grabs create suspicion and resistance. The new legislation in Brazil aims to regulate the carbon market, but it excludes agriculture, the biggest driver of deforestation. The rush for carbon offsets is outpacing regulation, and there is a lack of transparency and enforcement. Traditional and Indigenous populations are concerned about the impact on their territories and livelihoods.

That’s it for this week folks!

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See you all next week 👋

*I wanna stress very clearly here that the individual I referred to here is not anybody who worked with me at any of my former startups.

** No, I’m not going to share the post the person made. I really want to give the person the benefit of the doubt. At least my doubt.

The Weekly Climate